Was Berglund Really That Bad?

by Jeff Ponder
July 13, 2010

2009-10 was a season that Patrik Berglund would like to put behind him.

After a wonderful rookie season in which the Swede scored 21 goals and 47 points, Berglund had a trying second season. He found himself in a drought early, moving from the top two lines all the way down to the fourth line many games. It seemed near-impossible that Berglund could ever pull himself off his slump.

But the question that seems to loom over Berglund is simple; was he really that bad?

Let's take a dive into his statistics, shall we? Berglund did have just 13 goals and 13 assists in 71 games played. Those are not too impressive numbers for someone who is expected to be a top-six forward on an up and coming team. Points do not speak much about a player unless they are compared to the players around him.

A statistic that is not recognized by the NHL is points per minute played. This unofficial statistic is calculated by dividing the amount of points by the amount of time played during the season. Berglund amassed .027 points per minute played in 958:39 played all season. This is just less than a few of his teammates. Berglund's teammate T.J. Oshie, who tied for second on the team with 48 points, put together .034 points per minute played in 1392:13 total minutes. Berglund saw much of his season on the last offensive line, while Oshie spent much of his season on the top line. Yet, their points per minute was not really that far off from each other.

Another teammate of Berglund's, who also did not have a great offensive year, was Brad Boyes. After coming off of a season in which he scored 72 points, Boyes totaled 14 goals, 28 assists and 42 points in all 82 games played. His lack of production also showed with his .031 points per minutes played (just .004 better than Berglund), in 1376:43 time played.

Berglund also is comparable to his teammates when looking at goals per minute played. Oshie, scoring 18 goals, had a goals per minute played of .013, while Berglund totaled .014 goals per minute played. Boyes, racking up 14 goals on the season, scored .010 goals per minute played. So this comparison actually has Berglund coming out on top as the best goal producer in the time he was given to play.

Looking around the league, Berglund compares to many skaters that are in his age range. Kris Versteeg, 24, scored 20 goals, 24 assists and 44 points and .036 points per minute played, as well as .016 goals per minute played. His point production may have been given a lift more than Berglund, since he was playing on a line with Marian Hossa and Patrick Sharp much of the season in Chicago.

Columbus' Derick Brassard, 22, was expected to come back after a major injury he suffered in his rookie year and help bolster an already strong Blue Jacket offense. But he did not impress the way that he was expected. His nine goals and 36 points were as impressive as the rest of his team's play, as well as his points per minute played of .031 in 1180:25. His goal per minute played was even more atrocious (really helping Berglund's cause), amassing just a .008.

So when taking into account his numbers in the amount he played, his stats are very comparable to other players in the Central Division. But many qualms with Berglund were his lack of focus and his inability to be physical.

"Some times in some situations, you might play a little too safe," Berglund said last November when he was demoted to the fourth line. "I feel like some times I do it. That is something that I've been thinking about. You can't be out there playing too safe. You want to be in position and when the chances are coming, you want to be there. It's something I want to ignore a little bit. I need to after more. I can't think about playing safe. It's up in your head, but I'm trying to work it out."

So Berglund knew that his focus and his over-thinking was a problem from the start. That is hopefully something that he has worked on over his long summer away from the rink.

Al MacInnis, Vice President of Blues Hockey Operations, weighed in on Berglund's physical play back in January of 2008 when he visited the World Junior Championships. “He’s got the ability; he just needs to be a little stronger.”

Berglund has always had skeptics about his physical play; at 6'4” 215 lb, he is expected to be a physical presence. But Berglund was never a physical player and was always the guy that dished the puck in Sweden.

This was just Berglund's second year. It is highly possible that Berglund will rebound and have a strong third year. But if he doesn't, don't be surprised to see him packing his things and headed back to Sweden next summer.

MacInnis and company are hoping that will not be the case.

Stay tuned in with Jeff Ponder's BluesNetMix blog by checking in every Tuesday at bluesnetmix.com.

Can Going Backwards Really Move the Team Forward?

by Jeff Ponder
July 6, 2010

Improvement rarely occurs in professional sports without any outside variables.

Blues President John Davidson and company seem to have disbelief in this idea. The organization has re-signed forward Brad Winchester, along with the team reportedly re-signing defenseman Carlo Colaiacovo. Both players were starting-18 guarantees throughout the 2009-10 season, and now it looks like they will be back for good throughout 2010-11. Is this a smart move for the Blues at this current juncture?

Winchester hit the open market on July 1st, hoping to entertain other offers from around the league. But the Blues decided to get him back, signing him to a 1-year, $750K contract just the next day. Winchester scored three goals and five assists in 64 games last season, mostly playing on the fourth line. The 6'5” 231 lb. winger is not known for his scoring ability though; he is brought back because the team wants grit and strength down low in the corners. But why did the team bring in Matt D'Agostini and Vladimir Sobotka to do the same job?

Looking from another angle, Paul Kariya and Keith Tkachuk were not exactly the greatest goal scorers for the Blues last season. But their combined goal total saw 31 pucks enter opposing nets; how does this team plan on making up for their combined production? D'Agostini and Sobotka's totals from last season (D'Agostini with Montreal and St. Louis, Sobotka with Boston), accumulated six goals with their respected clubs. These two cannot be expected to put up numbers to match Kariya and Tkachuk's amount. Scoring just 218 goals as a team last year, the Blues ranked 17th in the NHL out of 30 teams. They need a boost offensively, but it looks like the team will have yet another season with scoring woes since there have not been any new additions.

Just as the offense looks like it will be more of a disappointment than an improvement, it seems that the defense shows no sign of improving either. Colaiacovo, who had a strong season in a Blues jersey last year, was second on the roster in plus/minus with a plus-eight. He was strong at moving the puck out of his end and being one of the best in keeping the puck in the offensive zone on power-plays. That is why the team, reportedly, is working out a deal with the Canadian defenseman that would pay him around $4.25M over a two-year period (via spectorshockey.net). As good as Colaiacovo has been since being acquired from Toronto in November of 2008, it almost seems pointless to re-sign the defenseman.

Davidson keeps stressing to the fans that the team will be set for years on defense. So why keep bringing these guys back that probably do not have long-term plans with the organization?

"The only thing we're missing back there now is experience," Davidson said of his young defensemen before the draft. "We've got good puck-moving defensemen that belong to us, good stay-at-home defensemen, and even good stay-at-home defensemen who can move the puck. We all want quicker development, but it doesn't happen that way. These kids are going to come in and do their best to earn it."

How can they possibly earn it if they aren't even given an opportunity? Davidson has stated before that he wants Blues fans to watch the kids grow; what better arena for fans to watch than the Scottrade Center?

“One thing we promised our fans was come and grow with us and watch our young kids grow,” Davidson said shortly after the hiring of Davis Payne. “Going forward, we really look to improve our kids with Davis.”

Payne cannot work with the kids if they are not even with the NHL club.

Not only is the signing of Colaiacovo going against what Davidson is preaching, but now reports are pouring in that Mike Weaver may be back next season. How are players like Alex Pietrangelo and Ian Cole supposed to grow and be NHL-caliber defensemen in a few seasons if they aren't being given playing time in the big league?

What may be even more frustrating to Blues nation is watching other defensemen drafted after Pietrangelo change the face of their franchises. Luke Schenn, drafted one pick behind Pietrangelo in 2008, has been a coveted defenseman in Toronto since his NHL arrival in early 2009. His plus-two rating was third on a Maple Leafs roster that finished near the NHL cellar. Playing in 79 games last season, Schenn has become a mainstay for Brian Burke's club.

Tyler Myers has easily been the most accomplished defenseman from that draft though. Winning the 2010 Calder Trophy as rookie of the year, Myers scored 11 goals and 48 points, including 16 power-play points. Drafted eight spots behind Pietrangelo, Myers has proven that the deep defensive draft in 2008 provided many great defensemen.

These two players are just the beginning; defensemen Luca Sbisa of Anaheim and Michael Del Zotto of the New York Rangers have both contributed to their teams and were both taken in the first round of the 2008 draft behind Pietrangelo.

With the recent moves made by the Blues, it is hard to tell what direction the club is headed. The talks of a parade down Market Street may have to be hushed until the Blues can figure out which way forward is.

Stay tuned in with Jeff Ponder's BluesNetMix blog by checking in every Tuesday at bluesnetmix.com.

Busy Times at the 2010 NHL Entry Draft

by Jeff Ponder

The Blues continued their busy off-season this past weekend. They were not finished when they acquired Jaroslav Halak.

Both Scout Jarmo Kekalainen and General Manager Larry Pleau will be leaving the organization this summer, and it looks as if the Blues will have a completely different look from now on. Kekalainen and company selected Jaden Schwartz as their first-round pick, going 14th overall. Schwartz was expected to be a late-first round pick, but Kekalainen felt the need to take him much earlier. As a member of the Tri-City Storm, the 5'10” 180 lb. forward scored 33 goals, 50 assists for 83 points in 60 games last season. His puck control and crafty hands earned him a first-round selection. Only good things were said by NHL scouts.

"I don't think Jaden has changed his style of play since he was 14 or 15 years old,” Jack Barzee of the NHL Central Scouting said. “He's very deceptive and shifty through the neutral zone and strong on the puck. It's very hard to get the puck off his stick."

But the question mark lies in his size. Blues fans have witnessed on several accounts how smaller players can be victims of poor puck control against bigger defensemen. Paul Kariya, Brad Boyes, David Perron and T.J. Oshie, all 6'0” or smaller, faced many problems last season keeping the puck in the offensive zone and on their stick in the corners.

But many players have succeeded that are small in stature. Brian Gionta of the Montreal Canadiens (5'7” 173 lbs.) has made a living of deking around the best defensemen in the league and putting the puck in the net. Martin St. Louis of the Tampa Bay Lightning (5'9” 177 lbs.) has found a way to succeed in the league, scoring on blasts from the face-off dots and weaving around defenders to score the pretty goals.

As one of Jarmo's last decisions, the Blues are hoping for the sleeper pick with Schwartz. But the Blues were not done there.

Just a few minutes later, Commissioner Gary Bettman announced a trade between the Blues and the Ottawa Senators. The Blues traded defenseman David Rundblad to the Senators for the 16th overall pick and preceded to select Vladimir Tarasenko. Needless to say, Rundblad's career as a Blues prospect was short lived.

After being selected 17th overall by the Blues in 2009, Rundblad was used as trade bait to acquire the pick that Jarmo wanted in this year's draft. It was obvious that the Blues' head scout had his eye on a certain prospect and he wanted him badly in the Blues' system.

Vladimir Tarasenko plays a little different style of a game than Schwartz. Standing at 6'0” and weighing 192 lbs, Tarasenko is a pulverizing forward that has a quick release on his shot and a great set of hands that make for quick passes.

“Vladimir is very effective around the net with his excellent overall skill level and vision,” NHL Director of European Scouting Goran Stubb said. “He is a strong, mobile skater with a quick shot. He is not only a sniper, but also a good passer and playmaker. There are no real weaknesses in his overall game and he will be one of the most interesting prospects at the draft."

A big upside for Tarasenko is when his numbers are compared to Alexander Ovechkin's during his draft year. Ovechkin scored 13 goals and 23 points in 53 games, while Tarasenko put up 13 goals and 24 points in 11 less games played. He is not as crafty as the big Washington winger, but his numbers are very comparable in the Russian leagues.

Tarasenko was rated as the second best Russian player in the 2010 Entry Draft, just behind Kirill Kabanov (selected 65th overall by the New York Islanders due to worries of him playing in the KHL).

Still, the Blues were not done being the talk of the draft. They traded defensive prospect David Warofsky, drafted 95th overall by St. Louis in 2008, to the Boston Bruins for forward Vladimir Sobotka. Not too shabby of a deal if the Blues are looking for immediate help.

With third and fourth liners D.J. King, Cam Janssen and T.J. Hensick still mulling over their qualifying offers and Brad Winchester and B.J. Crombeen on the outs, the Blues secured a player that can play on a regular basis on the checking lines. Sobotka is a 22 year-old forward who registered ten points in 61 games last season that also has a very physical style of play. He is known as a tough forward that also has better hands when compared to the other feisty guys in the league.

This trade also makes sense because the Blues are stacked with defensive prospects. Warofsky just did not fit in the Blues' long term plans.

Kekalainen and Pleau definitely left the organization with a bang. If new GM Neil Armstrong and the Professional Blues Hockey Scouts can continue the trend that Jarmo and Pleau ended with, a vastly improved Blues team could be taking the rink on October 9th.

Stay tuned in with Jeff Ponder's BluesNetMix blog by checking in every Tuesday at bluesnetmix.com.

Want to Have a Crack at the Stanley Cup? Join the Blues!

by Jeff Ponder

Marian Hossa didn't have to go to the Stanley Cup Finals three years in a row to win Hockey's Holy Grail; he could have just been a member of the Blues before the lockout and he would have been ensured a victory.

Does anyone remember those teams from 2001-04? You know, those teams that went to the playoffs every season and made every game exciting. That seems like eons ago for many Blues fans...

Just recently, Chicago Blackhawks head coach Joel Quenneville lifted the Stanley Cup over his head for the first time in his life. Coach Q, who has a 97-44-19 record as coach of the Hawks, could not seem to accomplish this feat with the team that first handed him the head coaching job, the St. Louis Blues. This is despite the fact that Quenneville is the winningest coach in Blues history, and that he took the Blues to the playoffs seven times in as many seasons.

But this isn't the first former Blue from that era that has moved on to better things since leaving St. Louis.

The very first year after the lockout (the year that Blues fans collectively have blocked from their memories), Chris Pronger and his mighty Edmonton Oilers surged as the eight-seed to face defeat in game seven at the hands of the Carolina Hurricanes, who by the way swung a deal with the Blues to acquire center Doug Weight for the Cup run. Weight skated the Stanley Cup around RBC Center in Raleigh, North Carolina, to the dismay of his former teammate in St. Louis. But Pronger didn't quit there.

After asking for a trade and drawing in much conspiracy, Pronger became an instant leader in the Anaheim Ducks' locker room and once again led his team to the Stanley Cup Finals in 2007. He paired up against one of the most dynamic lines in hockey, Daniel Alfredsson – Jason Spezza – Dany Heatley, and shut them down to capture Lord Stanley's Cup in just a five-game series. His stubborn play in front of the net and bone-crushing hits were a big reason for the team's amazing run.

But another team pleaded for his assistance. Just last summer, the Philadelphia Flyers worked a deal with the Ducks to send Pronger to the City of Brotherly Love. It was obvious this deal was made because the Flyers just did not have the manpower to shut down their hated cross-state foes, the Pittsburgh Penguins. Pronger did his job and proved that he is still an elite defenseman when he was the driving defensive force behind the Flyers' Stanley Cup bid. Even after becoming an even bigger bully to his opponents, the Flyers lost in game six of the Finals to Quenneville and the Blackhawks. It was Pronger's third Final appearance in the five years that he has been away from St. Louis.

But these guys are not the only ones to make a long stride to the Cup. Former Blues captain Dallas Drake won the Cup with Detroit in 2008 after being bought-out by St. Louis the season before. Along with Drake, Chris Osgood, the goaltender who served a short stint with the Blues before the lockout, was a stand-out player for the Red Wings in their 2008 victory. Osgood also made another Stanley Cup Final appearance in 2009 when he and his teammates fell to the Penguins in seven games. Not too shabby for the Blues' former property.

With all of the success that has ensued after the lockout for former players, its a wonder that players such as Pavol Demitra and Michal Handzus haven't tasted the sweet taste of winning the Stanley Cup. One of the players that stuck around, except for a dreadful stint with the Thrashers, was Keith Tkachuk. Needless to say, Tkachuk never got a true chance to win the NHL's championship.

New Blues General Manager Doug Armstrong and President John Davidson have already begun works to change that luck for its players though. Drafting a young core of steady defensemen and colorful forwards started the transformation of the team from their post-lockout stiffness. But with the acquisition of Jaroslav Halak from Montreal, Blues management is making baby steps toward parading the Cup down Market Street. Their motto just may be to watch the former players enjoy their victory so that the current Blues can have the same fate for many years to come.

Thoughts to Ponder: Jaroslav Halak is a Blue at the moment, but what about when free-agency rolls around? It is projected that Halak will be searching for a handsome raise from the current $775K salary that he makes. Halak is expected to reach a top-ten NHL goalie-type salary, so expect to see his asking price to be about a five-year, $25 million contract. The Blues have all but said that Paul Kariya is on the outs, plus this deal means Chris Mason is likely on the same boat as Kariya. Freeing up their salaries should be enough to make Halak happy... With Halak's arrival, the Blues will now likely steer away from drafting a goalie in this year's draft. Jack Campbell was touted to be the Blues' pick, since he is a top goalie-prospect and is not expected to be a top-ten pick. The Blues may want to trade down in the draft now, to a team such as San Jose or Washington, whose goalie futures are certainly in question. Trading down could mean a NHL-ready roster player or a few more picks in later rounds.

Stay tuned in with Jeff Ponder's BluesNetMix blog by checking in every Tuesday at bluesnetmix.com.